April 16, 2024
The Pace of Disinflation is Stalled, Pushing Back the First Rate Cut Expectation Beyond June
The two weeks since our last Economic Review have been busy ones for economic news, and that news has not been good for those hoping for Federal Reserve action to reduce interest rates in the near term.
March 26, 2024
FOMC meeting: Reiterating Data Dependency & Reinforcing a Higher-For-Longer Rate Reality
Read our insight on the data from last week’s FOMC meeting where the Fed opted to keep interest rates unchanged, but confirmed cuts this year.
March 18, 2024
Core Inflation Exceeded Expectations for The Last Two Months – Stickier Than Expected
For now, the inflation news appears to be outweighing softening employment in terms of market impact. Let’s review some of the more significant economic data released last week.
March 11, 2024
What a Difference a Week Makes: Soft February Employment Data Reignites Rate Cut Hopes
Our insight on the economic data from the week of March 4 shows adjusted employment data, changes in inflation and consumer spending.
March 4, 2024
Both Fed Chair Powell and Berkshire Hathaway Chair Buffett Agree – Patience Pays
Last week, all eyes were on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index for Jan-uary. Besides the inflation report, other meaningful economic data was released, and we saw the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit all-time highs last Friday. Many of us also read Warren Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, with its timeless investment wisdom. Let’s review some of the important economic data released last week
February 27, 2024
Strong Retail & Wholesale Inflation Data: Don’t Hold Your Breath on Rate Cuts Any Time Soon!
Once again, we had conflicting economic data during the week of February 12th – consumer and wholesale prices jumped in January, while in the same month retail sales dropped more than expected. What does all this mean? Read more!
February 12, 2024
Equity Market and Interest Yields Rising, as Rate Cut Expectations Fade Away
The resilient economic growth and cooling inflation are expected to continue, subject to potential downside risks such as supply chain disruption and inflation resurgence due to geopolitical issues.
February 5, 2024
Blockbuster New Jobs and Unlikely March Rate Cut – Is the Last Mile the Longest?
The equity markets continued to climb higher for most of the last week. The rally has been supported by three pillars – a strong economy, declining inflation, and rate cut expectations.
January 29, 2024
What’s Going On with the Equity Markets?
The equity markets continued to climb higher for most of the last week. The rally has been supported by three pillars – a strong economy, declining inflation, and rate cut expectations.
January 22, 2024
Have the Markets Overpriced the Pace and Number of Interest-Rate Cuts?
Fast rate cut optimism appears to be slowly fading away. The probability of a March rate cut is down to almost 50% chance from the 90% chance seen in the first and second week of January.
